EIA Increases US Crude Oil Production Forecast for 2019 and 2020
Thursday, December 12, 2019
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revises its U.S. crude oil production forecast in each monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) based mainly on two factors: updates to EIA’s published historical data and EIA’s crude oil price forecast. In the November 2019 STEO, EIA increased its forecast of U.S. crude oil production in 2019 by 30,000 barrels per day (b/d) (0.2%) from the October STEO. EIA increased its 2020 crude oil production forecast by 119,000 b/d (0.9%) compared with the October STEO.
The increases in crude oil production forecast in the November STEO were primarily driven by EIA’s upward revision to historical production in the Lower 48 states of about 90,000 b/d for August, based on EIA’s most recent monthly crude oil production survey data; a higher initial production forecast for future wells that will be drilled in the Texas Permian region through 2020; and, a slightly higher crude oil price forecast for the November 2019–January 2020 time period than in the October STEO.
n the November STEO, the EIA increased its U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price forecast by $2 per barrel (b) in November to $56/b and by $1/b in both December and January to $55/b and $54/b, respectively. The slight increase in crude oil prices also contributed to the EIA’s increased production forecast for the first half of 2020 because of EIA’s assumption of a six-month lag between a crude oil price change and a production response.
With these changes, EIA now forecasts U.S. crude oil production will increase to 12.3 million b/d in 2019 from 11.0 million b/d in 2018. Output in the Permian region is the primary driver of EIA’s forecast crude oil production growth, and EIA forecasts Permian production will grow by 915,000 b/d in 2019 and by 809,000 b/d in 2020.
To read the full report, please visit eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=42055.